The $1,000 per hour consultant.

There seems to be a major shortage of consultants who can design accessible hotel rooms and bathrooms that are actually usable.

All of the incompetents currently practicing are, I believe, paid $1,000 per hour for their work which, having memorized the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), they claim to deserve. None of them, however, has ever met a disabled person. The result, in far too many places - including all of the three hotels in which your correspondent has stayed this week, is that the so-called accessible rooms and bathrooms are really hard to get around in.

One example (two of the three hotels) relates to the roll in showers where the seat is at one end of the enclosure and the shower head and faucet (taps) are five feet away at the other end. Is it not obvious that such a separation of guest and shower head is well beyond the reach of any normal person who needs to sit while taking a shower? Then there are shower curtains which fail to prevent massive floods in the rest of the bathroom, bedside lights that cannot be reached by a person sitting in a wheelchair and a myriad of other minor, and not so minor, nuisances.

Every hotel General Manager should immediately telephone the local chapter of the Disabled American Veterans and say this: "if you send me three of your members - one a wheelchair user, one with balance issues who uses a walker, and the other one a leg amputee - I will buy them lunch at the best restaurant in town. In exchange, I would like them to inspect all of our wheelchair accessible rooms and bathrooms and tell us how to make them as easy to use as possible and not just ADA compliant."

That will be the cheapest and most effective consulting any hotel will ever receive. It will likely make the world a significantly better place and, with luck, we will see some of the $1,000 an hour consultants standing in the unemployment line where they belong.

Investing - the eight Bs

Very few miners made significant fortunes during a gold rush. The people who really made money were the suppliers of services and equipment. In the 19th century, some of the most profitable investments were in bullets, booze, brothels, buckets, barrows, burros, bacon and beans.

So, consider the merits of backing suppliers of components and infrastructure, rather than the companies in the headlines, as a key part of an investing philosophy.

Some Thoughts About the Presidential Election

In the interests of full disclosure, your correspondent admits to having voted for Governor Romney but only as the lesser (just) of two evils.

Here are a few thoughts now that the dust has settled a bit.

President Obama's performance over the past nearly four years was such that he should have been fired for incompetence and gross lack of leadership skills. A contest that any sensible and competent Republican should have won, in a canter, was lost.The only merit in President Obama's re-election is that we can be sure that he will be gone in four years.

It would also have been useful if Governor Romney had refrained from idiotic right wing(nut) remarks that merely demonstrated the ability of an American Upper Class Twit and Poor Little Rich Kid to look down his nose at the lower orders.

Your correspondent considered several of them to be personal insults and does not believe that he is alone in holding an opinion.

Notwithstanding that his wife has a seriously disabling disease (and let us all hope that it will not progress or will progress only very slowly) Governor Romney's condescending attitude towards people with disabilities was appalling. To speak of a quadriplegic as a successful entrepreneur BEFORE he became disabled misses the point. Your correspondent knows many quadriplegics who became, or continued to be, successful after their injuries: a former VP at Goldman Sachs and now sailing entrepreneur, a radiologist, a Professor of English and award winning screenwriter being only three examples.

Then there was the infamous 47% video. In 2011, your correspondent missed being a member of that group by a trivial sum but still paid thousands in payroll taxes. Further, as an International Judge for sailboat racing, your correspondent is on the same rung of the sports officiating ladder as, for example, a Major League Baseball Umpire: qualified to work a World Championship or even the Olympics. The main difference is that they get paid - a lot - and sailing judges do not even though value is surely added. Had your correspondent been paid for the forty four full days and twenty seven  half days devoted to that task in 2011 - even at a tenth of the rate paid to baseball umpires - his tax bill would have been quite significant.

There are many people in this country who work hard and add value but do not get paid: many of them are just called volunteers, others are homemakers. Republicans need to understand that not all problems can, or should, be solved by the application of cash.

Then there was the Republican attack on immigrants in which Governor Romney joined enthusiastically. Your correspondent is an immigrant (now a citizen) and proud of it. The corruption of language among Republicans is such that the term 'illegal' is now automatically implied - which is grossly insulting - when the word 'immigrant' is spoken. Where is the Republican Party's understanding of our heritage as a nation of immigrants?

Then there was his lack of trust in the American people. Admittedly the Democrats would have attacked him viciously for the content of the tax returns that he refused to release but the slow drip, drip, drip of distrust that this secrecy engendered can not have helped his campaign. Finally, to say "I have a plan to create jobs, fix the economy etc. etc." without specifics or even a decent road map is tantamount to the mantra of a con man. 'Trust me, trust me. trust me' only arouses suspicion in those of us who are paying attention.

Your correspondent is suffering from nostalgia for the 'Big Tent' Republican Party and Barry Goldwater (who likely could not win the Republican Party nomination in this day and age) whose fundamental philosophy was fiscal conservatism, strong defense and social tolerance.

Of course, nostalgia is one thing but there is no going back. Our memories are unreliable and honesty demands that we admit that things never actually were the way we think they used to be. Your correspondent merely hopes that the leaders of the Republican Party will think deeply about the good of the country rather than the blind pursuit of political power.

Are you listening Senator McConnell and Representative Boehner?

American Socialism (8)

A common characteristic of all market economies is that scarce products and services can best be rationed by means of price. Students who attend Economics 101 will learn that concept in an early discussion of supply and demand. In socialist economies, by contrast, rationing is achieved by coupon books and by waiting in long lines.

What, then, to make of the long lines to buy currently scarce gasoline in New York and New Jersey?

The United States prides itself on being a market economy but as soon as there is a shortage, then the shouts of 'profiteering' and 'price gouging', sometimes supported by state and local laws, become overwhelming. The result is the same as in a socialist economy: long lines and miserably poor allocation of scarce resources.

Should not the market not be permitted to work? Those who really need - not just want - gasoline might consider $10.00 (or more) to be a reasonable price for a gallon and would find it easily available while those who merely want gasoline, or consider such a price to be too high, can wait until the buying panic is over.

But what about the poor people? Since, at least in this situation, they could have planned ahead and bought gasoline (at its more or less normal price) before the storm, your correspondent has little sympathy for them.

There is such a thing as individual responsibility. Socialism, however, with all of its ugly consequences, seems to be the regrettable solution for those to whom such a virtue is little known.

Dictator of the World (2)

As the not-so-outer edge of Hurricane Sandy passed through the Washington DC area, the power went off. and your correspondent was literally (and metaphorically?) in the dark for about thirteen hours.

Being well stocked with candles, batteries, flashlights and bottled water as well as having previously cooked all of the perishable food that could plausibly be eaten cold, this was no great hardship.

Once the power returned, however, resetting all of the electric clocks (stove, microwave, many clock radios etc.) was a tiresome chore. As a result, here is a resolution for the future.

When I become Dictator of the World, there will be a single absolute standard for the number, purpose and location of the buttons used to set the time (and the alarms) on all appliances and radios. There will also be a standard for automobiles since, twice a year, the clocks must be reset to account for daylight savings time.

The punishment for industrial designers who decide to be "creative" will be the intense boredom generated by being forced to judge - and write a four hundred word critique of each of - one hundred watercolors painted by a randomly selected group of six year old children.

The world will be a slightly better place.

A Reluctant Conclusion

To understand a problem is the first step to solving it - but only the first step.

To be in a position to solve a really critical problem - and then to take no action, demonstrates such a lack of leadership skills that that person is unfit to hold the office of President of the United States of America.

On March 16, 2006, then freshman Senator Barack Obama, addressed the United States Senate on the topic of the debt ceiling. The first and penultimate paragraphs show his understanding of the situation, his final sentence expressing opposition to raising the debt ceiling (see also Tea Party and default) indicates that his understanding of the solution is woefully lacking:

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US Government cannot pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government's reckless fiscal policies...

 ... Increasing America's debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that, "the buck stops here.' Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.

I therefore intend to oppose the effort to increase America's debt limit."

[Note: unlike many of these quotes that circulate in conservative circles, this one is validated by Snopes. Your correspondent did not have the time to wade through the Congressional Record but you can read the Snopes piece here including Senator Obama's entire statement]

Governor Romney's actions and words have insulted many, including your correspondent, but he does at least have a record of leadership. He built a significant business, Bain Capital, beginning when he was only 37 years old and he averted a significant disaster in the making, the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics, whose failure would have greatly reduced our standing in the world.

On the other hand, Romney's lack of trust in the American people with regard to releasing his tax returns, his refusal to spell out the spending cuts he would propose and his tiresome refrain 'I know how to...' without further explanation make him a person whom it is hard to trust in return.

On November 6th, your correspondent will hold his nose (not too hard because pain is not part of the program) while he votes for leadership (even though he is not quite sure where Mr. Romney is going) and the retirement of President Obama.

Fixing Things

As we come to the end of the sailing season, at least for those who do not live in California, Florida and the Antipodes, we are faced with the task of putting away our boats for the winter and repairing the damage from the season. There are many of us who are mechanically challenged and for whom fixing things is hard, really hard.

There are some who claim that anything can be fixed by hitting it with a hammer. That is largely true but knowing where, and how hard, to hit takes great skill and training. It is also worth noting that, if you can't fix it with a hammer, you have an electrical problem.

For the rest of us, with limited mechanical ability, there are only two tools: duct tape and WD40. If it moves, and it’s not supposed to, use the duct tape. If it doesn't move, and it should, use the WD40.

Dictator of the World

When I become Dictator of the World, there will be a very substantial Ugly Boat Tax. Starving artists will be hired, at a modest daily rate, as tax assessors.

Jet Skis will not be taxed but will be confiscated and given to the military for use as targets for automatic weapons training.

The world will be a slightly better place!

A Message to the Democratic National Committee

How come you never call?

I live in a very Democratic part of the Independent Peoples Republic of Northern Virginia and I expected you to be annoying me constantly. The Republican National Committee calls me twice a day - at least - and really makes me feel wanted. (Well, actually, annoyed but never mind.)

That's OK because I really don't want to talk to you or to listen to one of your robot messages. I know that you will only try to get me to vote to re-elect a President who could not lead a tribe of starving Somalis to a free all-you-can-eat buffet dinner. If you are not pitching for Mr. Obama, then you will want to persuade me to vote for a man who was a barely adequate Governor of Virginia and for Congressman Moron (sorry Moran) who is a wife beater, kid slapper, anti-Semite, and taker of loans from lobbyists with business before his Congressional committee.

Don't ask me for money either. I never contribute to politicians (it only encourages them) and I am not planning to start now.

But I will be voting on November 6th and the topmost thought in my mind is 'throw the bastards out - all of them'.

A Message to the Republican National Committee

Go away!

For the last two weeks, I have received from the RNC at least two, sometimes more, telephone calls every day. I don't want to get any more robo-calls from you and I am not very interested in talking to a live person.

I get the message! You want me to vote for Mitt "The Twit" Romney, 'Poor Little Rich Kid' Ryan, George 'Macaca' Allen and the clown who is running against Congressman Moran (Moron?).

Not only do I not want to hear from you anymore, please be advise that the likelihood of my voting for any of your candidates declines with every telephone call. In fact, there is a lot to be said for renting a cottage at an isolated lake, with no radio or television, from November 3 - 10 and just spending the week immersed in some of the books that are stacked up on my desk waiting to be read.

Foreign Policy - Advice to Governor Romney

Governor Romney would do well to take heed of the wise words of two former Presidents:

First, spoken by John Quincy Adams: "America goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own."

The second thought to be remembered is Theodore Roosevelt's classic remark: "speak softly and carry a big stick." 

Perhaps both of these should be engraved on every bathroom mirror in the White House!

On Writing

I asked a friend, who is an author of excellent fiction and a number of interesting blogs, whether writing was an incurable disease or merely an addiction that could, with some effort, be overcome.

Her response was delightfully simple: "why resist?"

So, after more than a year of hibernation, I have returned to comment on public affairs, to skewer the pompous, and to challenge those who, to steal from Winston Churchill, engage in excessive flights of terminological inexactitude.

Watch this space!

Time for a Wholesale Change in Congress

Left wing - and even relatively moderate Democrats - seem to think that it is reasonable for our country to adopt a financial position akin to a person facing the ocean while standing on one leg at the extreme edge of a high and crumbling cliff.

Their actions and policies have not yet culminated in a fall but, without real action to address our uncontrolled spending, disaster will surely happen. Right wing Republicans seem to think that the problem can be solved overnight and without raising any additional revenues. There is nothing in their program that recognizes the fact that turning around and moving back from the edge of the cliff must be done somewhat slowly and carefully while using every available foot and handhold. That means both cuts in spending and increases in revenue.

We, The People, elected these politicians and, therefore, must take responsibility. While our next opportunity to thank them for their service (service?), and wish them good fortune in their new lives, is not until the elections in November 2012, we must express our displeasure firmly, and frequently, up until that point.

Otherwise, we may find ourselves in the predicament that Benjamin Franklin foresaw. When asked what the drafters of the Constitution had produced, he responded: "A Republic, Madam, if you can keep it."

The growth of 'Big Government' and the Imperial Presidency has been almost uninterrupted since the inauguration of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933. As a result, we are in danger of losing our Republic.

Whether that be as a result of bankruptcy and chaos followed by authoritarian rule or merely by a process of increasingly large and intrusive government, with us playing the role of frogs in a pot of slowly heated water, as politicians responds to demands for 'more, more' is as yet uncertain. What is certain is that there is still some time to act to trim the government but less time than we would like.

Without prompt action, however, we will have to conclude that President Bill Clinton was engaged in wishful thinking when, in the 1996 State of the Union Address, he said that the era of Big Government is over.

Raising the Debt Ceiling

That the United States urgently needs a program to reduce its annual budget deficit is a given. That this should be done mostly by cutting spending, but also by rationalizing the tax code to eliminate outrageous giveaways - including, but hardly limited to, ethanol subsidies and, to kill some sacred cows, both mortgage interest and state tax deductions whose benefit goes primarily to those who need it least, is also reasonably obvious.

That these tasks are complex and will take time to complete is also true. If not done carefully, the Law of Unintended Consequences will govern and, as usual, it will do so to the detriment of us all.

Unfortunately there is a significant number of Congressional Republicans (mostly of the Tea Party variety) who seem to believe that allowing the USA to default on its obligations is perfectly acceptable. Some of them claim that no default will actually occur because the Treasury can manage the available funds so that interest on the national debt continues to be paid and maturing bonds are rolled over without the need to increase the national debt.

They are wrong: in August alone the ugly difference between expected revenue and scheduled expenditures is approximately $134 billion.

They are also right but only in a strictly technical sense. To avoid default on portions of the national debt, however, will require that others are not paid. What is a refusal to make payments, to recipients of Social Security, to doctors who treated patients covered by Medicare, to government contractors of all stripes, or to so called non-essential government employees who are furloughed, other than a default? That the government does not default on its debt is a mere technicality if it is also in default on other obligations. Who, then, will go unpaid?

To be a debtor is bad but to be a deadbeat is dishonorable.

These politicians should take a lesson from the millions of citizens whose houses, bought at the peak of the housing bubble, are worth less the mortgage balance. These people have not defaulted or mailed the front door keys back to the bank. Instead, they keep making their payments because it is the right thing to do.

They might also want to consider the case of President Harry S Truman. His haberdashery shop in Kansas City, Missouri, failed in 1923 leaving a pile of debts. When he became President of the United States in 1945, Mr. Truman was still making payments on those debts.

Most modern commentators would likely describe him as foolish for paying debts that he could have repudiated in bankruptcy court. That is a measure of our diminished morality. Your correspondent, on the other hand, thinks that he was an honorable man.

We urgently need all members of the House and Senate to recognize that there are two major tasks - and that there is no direct link between them. First, eliminate the possibility of a default and, second, set about the process of matching expenditure to revenue.

If our politicians refuse to act, then We The People, must ensure that they are duly punished at the next possible opportunity. November 2012 is not far away.

A Thought for Today

Most politicians and senior executives find humility and a little modesty - even false modesty - too much to endure.

All of us, not just those mentioned above, might be well served by contemplating the fact that most of us are born bald, naked and incontinent. When we die many of us are again bald, naked and incontinent.

Two Hundred and Thirty Five Years Ago...

... Congress approved the Declaration of Independence of the Thirteen Colonies.

As our great nation, although far from insolvent but cursed with politicians who lack both courage and the ability to lead and who seem to prefer posturing and self-advancement to serious work, faces the possibility of defaulting on its debts, it is well that we consider the commitments made by those who signed that iconic document.

All of them knew that they were liable, if captured, to be tried for treason, hanged and their assets confiscated. They did not act selfishly or seek preferment nor did they shrink from the task, stating in the last sentence:

And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

For those who do not have their copy of the Declaration close at hand, here is a link to the National Archives.

War in Afghanistan (3)

President Obama will speak to the nation this evening. He will tells us that he intends to begin the process of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. Reports are circulating that the number is between five and ten thousand soldiers.

If the reports are accurate, then President Obama has got it wrong - again. Afghan President Karzai, referring to NATO troops as occupiers, has made it clear that he doesn't want us there. The Taliban, pressured by the combat capability provided by an additional thirty thousand troops in 2010, has reduced its activity but has not been defeated in detail. Nor, even with thousands more troops, will it ever be. Mostly the Taliban is keeping its powder dry as it awaits our scheduled departure in 2014.

Worse, while our stated objectives are to support the Karzai government in its efforts to establish control over the entire country, current levels of corruption and incompetence make this unattainable. To describe Mr. Karzai now, and in 2014 if he is still President, as no more than Mayor of Kabul is not entirely unfair.

When the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001, our objectives were to destroy al-Qaeda and to capture or kill Osama bin Ladin. Now, Osama bin Ladin is dead and the original al-Qaeda so severely weakened that it is effectively unable to attack us. Admittedly, the branches of al-Qaeda that have sprung up in other countries are a problem but they will have to be dealt with in those countries: our continued presence in Afghanistan certainly does not help to weaken them and may even provide ideological succor and support.

A year ago, your correspondent suggested that we take the advice of the late Senator George Aiken (R-Vt) by declaring victory and leaving. The deal that we would want to strike with the Taliban has barely changed and there is no rational reason, if the Taliban is serious about controlling Afghanistan, for them to attempt to inflict a humiliating defeat on us.

Our primary objectives in Afghanistan have been achieved and we have no further strategic interests there but, if the Taliban decides to shelter our enemies, we do have the ability to undertake devastating punitive raids. There is, therefore, no reason to spend hundreds of billions of dollars (which we do not have and can not afford) in the next three years only to find Afghanistan in substantially the same condition as now.

If Mr. Obama tells us that he is ordering the immediate return of twenty thousand troops this year and that all, except perhaps for a small group of advisers - if the Afghan government wants them, will be home by the end of next year, then he will have got it right.

Your correspondent, however, regrets that he only sees more good money (and lives) being thrown after bad.

Headscratcher (13)

Rarely does a week go by without Sarah Palin demonstrating her total unfitness to serve in any elected office - or even as an elementary school history and civics teacher. Her latest version of "history as she is wrote" is captured in this news report. According to Ms. Palin, Paul Revere's famous ride was to warn the British that they would not prevail.

That there is significant support f0r Sarah Palin's as yet unannounced campaign for President is a true headscratcher but an expanation may lie in H.L. Mencken's definition of democracy:

"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

Enough said.

Temporary Hiatus

Your correspondent will be taking a temporary leave of absence while he recovers from a fall and the ensuing hip fracture.

Surgery tomorrow.

Raising the Ceiling on the National Debt

Consider a car racing down a highway at 150 miles per hour. Then consider that the highway leads to a river - quite a few miles away - and that the bridge over the river has collapsed. If nothing is done, the car will wind up in the river. The solution to this problem is relatively simple: slow down and stop before disaster occurs.

That analogy quite reasonably describes the United States government's twin deficit and debt problems. The rate of government spending is well over any sensible speed (the annual deficit is around ~ $1.5 trillion per year) and, as the national debt increases, the time approaches when lenders vanish and our car, as it were, sails into the river where we all drown.

The solution is for the driver of the car to take his foot off the accelerator, apply the brakes and stop before reaching the river. Admittedly this will take a bit of time and distance but both of these are still available - at least for a while. So too, for the government: stop out of control growth in spending (foot off accelerator) and start making serious cuts (apply the brakes). It will take a few years but, properly executed, the deficit and debt problems will be solved without major damage to the economy.

To claim that the problem of excessive government overspending can be solved by refusing to raise the debt ceiling is the equivalent of proposing that the best way to stop a speeding car is to run it into a tree. Undoubtedly that course of action will work but, as is too often the case, the side effects of the cure are likely to be worse than the disease.

Perhaps the ideologues - on both sides - will pick the sensible solution, before the bond markets over-react, but your correspondent does not believe that holding his breath will do anything other than make him blue in the face.

Headscratcher (12)

The most important feature of Hong Kong's tax law is a flat income tax with a universal rate of fifteen percent. Their entire tax law is written in about two hundred pages.

The United States tax code, as of 2010, filled seventy one thousand, six hundred and eighty four pages.

Taking into account all forms of revenue, the tax burden in Hong Kong is just under 16% of Gross Domestic Product. In the United States, taxes raised by the Federal government, between 1970 and 2009 averaged a little over 18% of GDP while inflicting top marginal rates of as much as 70% (prior to 1981) on the better off and rich. That the top marginal rate of tax is now "only" 35% is an improvement but still higher than is either fair or economically effective.

Few complain much about the relatively simple Hong Kong tax code, which raises almost as much as does the IRS, while almost everyone complains about the insane complexity of the IRS Code.

The difference, of course, is that the United States uses the tax code to engage in social engineering while partially - but only partially - mitigating the punitive effects of the higher marginal tax rates with a bizarre array of deductions, exemptions, and credits designed to reward favored groups and buy votes.

It is strange that there is not a single Representative or Senator who has dared to introduce a Tax Reform Bill based on the Hong Kong Tax Law. There are two features in every word processor that should make the task easy: they are 'copy' and 'paste'.

President Reagan made a good start with the 1986 Tax Reform but, in the past twenty five years, self serving politicians have largely emasculated that excellent piece of legislation. That Mr. Reagan's professed admirers are so disinclined to act is a headscratcher indeed!

Where Next?

Since the beginning of George H.W. Bush's Presidency in 1989, the United States has been in involved in major military actions in Panama, Iraq, Bosnia, Somalia, Kosovo, Iraq (again), Afghanistan, Somalia (again but at least only naval forces protecting against piracy in the Indian Ocean) and Libya. One may also suspect that small groups of special forces have been active in other countries.

In 1859, responding to a group of New Jersey legislators who were pushing for him to run for President, Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:

"I am well satisfied that all of the results that have attended the labors of my life are attributable to the simple rule which I early adopted, to mind my own business…

Nor can I suggest one more appropriate for the regulation and conduct of the foreign policy of the American people."

Were our leaders to learn from the wise words of the Commodore, the question 'where next?' could, mercifully, be put to sleep - at least for a while.

Penny Wise and Pound Foolish

Reducing government expenditure is critical but those who would cut budgets need to remember the old adage that it is easy to be penny wise and pound foolish.

In a short sighted attempt to save a relative pittance - at the expense of reliability and performance - the Pentagon and Congress have canceled the development of a second engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter which, in various versions, will replace all existing fighters (except the F-22) used by the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps. It will also be sold to a number of allied nations. The total production run is expected to be at least 3,000 and possibly as many as 4,000 aircraft.

The history of sole source procurement provides a simple lesson: it is rare that the frequently conflicting goals of quality, reliability, performance and cost are met. When the F-15, F-16 and F-14 fighters first went into service, the engines were procured on sole source contracts. Verne Orr, Secretary of the Air Force and John Lehman, Secretary of the Navy, were instrumental in developing second engines for these aircraft. John Lehman, in an article published in the New York Post (click here to read the entire article), describes what happened:

"Nowhere was the wisdom of annual competition better demonstrated than in the establishment of an alternative engine for the Air Force F-15 and F-16 fighters. Despite strong opposition from his own bureaucracy, Air Force Secretary Verne Orr, fed up with constant cost growth and repeated grounding of all fighters due to flaws in the sole-source engine, forced through the qualification of an alternative engine and contractor, and had the two compete every year thereafter.

The benefits from this annual competition came swiftly, were many and have endured. There was steady improvement in reliability, performance and fuel economy and a dramatic drop in engine-caused accidents. By the second year of full competition, the cost per engine had dropped 20 percent. The Navy soon followed suit in choosing an alternative engine for the F-14 with similar benefits."

Following the Congress's refusal to appropriate funds to continue the development of the second engine for the F-35, the Pentagon bureaucracy has issued a 'Stop Work' order, as of March 31, 2011, to General Electric and Rolls Royce. The result is to leave Pratt and Whitney as the sole source provider. Given relentless pressure from the military for more features - and yet more features, all of which cause the sky to be blackened by streams of criss-crossing [and extremely profitable] change orders and contract modifications, it can reliably be predicted that the resulting engines will suffer from performance and reliability issues. Meanwhile costs will escalate uncontrollably.

The only small consolation is that General Electric has decided, at its own expense, to keep a small development team at work on the second engine. When politicians and the bureaucracy realize, or are forced to accept the fact, that competition in defense procurement is essential, it may yet be possible to realize some of the same benefits that Secretaries Orr and Lehman obtained for us in the 1980s.

Karl Marx claimed that history repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce but the F-35 situation simply seems to embody both tragedy and farce in equal portions.

Courage and Failure

Senator John McCain, in a lengthy article published in 2004 - a year in which he was not a Presidential candidate, discusses courage, failure, and responsibility. What he wrote then is more applicable now than ever.

"Courage is like a muscle. The more we exercise it, the stronger it gets. I sometimes worry that our collective courage is growing weaker from disuse.

We don't demand it from our leaders, and our leaders don't demand it from us. The courage deficit is both our problem and our fault. As a result, too many leaders in the public and private sectors lack the courage necessary to honor their obligations to others and to uphold the essential values of leadership. Often, they display a startling lack of accountability for their mistakes and a desire to put their own self-interest above the common good.

That means trouble for us all, because courage is the enforcing virtue, the one that makes possible all the other virtues common to exceptional leaders: honesty, integrity, confidence, compassion, and humility. In short, leaders who lack courage aren't leaders."

Later, he touches succinctly on the fact that, now, there is little accountability for failure:

"When no one takes responsibility for failure, or when responsibility is so broadly shared that individual accountability is ignored, then failure in public office becomes acceptable. It's hard to see how that serves the country."

Of particular note is what drives him, as often as possible, to do the right thing:

"In the past, I've been able to overcome my own fears because of an acute sense of an even greater fear -- that of feeling remorse. You can live with pain. You can live with embarrassment. Remorse is an awful companion."

The President and Congress will need all of their courage - and sense of accountability - as they address the extreme financial problems of our nation. If we are lucky, Senator McCain (although, in his own words, no economic expert) will be in the forefront - leading by example. Even though his two presidential campaigns were unsuccessful, Senator McCain still has much to give his country.

A link to the entire article can be found here.

Sleeping on the Job

Good management consultants are very well aware that poor performance on the part of employees is often (not always, admittedly) caused by system problems rather than by idleness, incompetence or lack of training and qualifications.

During the past three weeks, the media's response to reports of air traffic controllers who fell asleep on the job - leaving aircraft to land without direction from the tower - bring to mind the hypocritical words of Police Captain Louis Renault in the 1942 movie Casablanca: "I'm shocked, shocked to find gambling..." A fair question, however, is to ask whether there are many people who can reasonably work the midnight shift, in an environment where there is little activity, and not spend a significant amount of time fighting against sleep - and sometimes losing the battle.

The fault lies with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) which, in a shortsighted attempt to save money, assigned a single controller to midnight shifts at many airports where there is only sporadic activity during that time period. That the FAA's system created the problem, rather than the employees, is clear.

While the controllers in question have been suspended from their jobs pending the investigation, your correspondent believes that all of them, save only the one who made himself a bed of cushions and slept deliberately, should be exonerated. The solution is to have a minimum of two controllers in each tower on midnight shift, regardless of the expected level of activity. That is now the case and, since one of their priorities will be to keep each other awake, sleeping can now legitimately be considered grounds for disciplinary action.

In a workplace where poor performance can cost many lives, holding employees accountable is critical. Management, however, must do its part by providing the necessary resources. That Hank Krakowski, Chief of Air Traffic Control at the FAA, accepted responsibility and resigned is honorable: the fact that the National Air Traffic Controllers Association (the controllers' union) has been asking the FAA to address this issue for twenty years points out the real issue.

What other critical issues has the FAA left untended? For all our sake's let us hope that they are few and none are critical.

What's Next?

The media are full of reports that the government is now funded for the balance of the fiscal year. These reports are misleading - at best.

The real situation is that an agreement has been reached on the general contents of such a bill. To enable the real bill to be written, yet another short term Continuing Resolution, expiring on Thursday at midnight, was passed. While it is probable that the bill will pass the House, it will likely only be on a close vote. Many Democrats believe that the cuts are excessive and will vote against it while a significant minority of Republicans (of the Tea Party persuasion) are unpersuaded that the cuts are sufficient.

The Tea Party Republicans are right that the outcome is disappointing but they would do well to accept the half loaf of bread and move on to more important issues.

Our country has two critical financial situations facing it. First, a possible default on our debt if the legal limit is not increased and, second, the need to adopt a budget for 2012 which includes a comprehensive and credible medium term strategy for balancing the budget and beginning to pay down the debt.

If the Congress and the President fail at the first task, we will have to ask which of these ugly consequences will occur:

• Prolonged high unemployment?
• Wage and salary cuts?
• More reductions in the value of homes and financial assets?
• Loss of ownership of American companies?
• Price inflation?
• Higher taxes?
• Reductions in government services and benefits?
• All of the above?

Most likely we will suffer all of the above and, if we thought that the Great Recession was ugly, just wait. If they fail at the second task, then the ugly consequences described above will merely be delayed for a year or two.

Meanwhile, at the end of this week, ignoring the fact that the United States will reach its legally permitted limit on the issuance of debt by approximately May 16, members of the House and Senate will leave Washington for two weeks to engage in what is laughably described as a District and State Work Period.

Can anyone in the House or Senate spell V-A-C-A-T-I-O-N?

What are these people are thinking? Are they even thinking at all when they engage in this hypocritical self indulgence at such a time of crisis? Where is the outrage? Where is the political firestorm? Why do we tolerate such behavior from those that were elected to lead and to manage the affairs of our nation?

If we, the People, do not act we can be sure that we have exactly the government that we deserve.

Irony and the Tea Party

A recent article in the Washington Post reports on the activities of the Franklin County Patriots - a so-called Tea Party Group that holds its monthly meeting in Rocky Mount Virginia.

That Tea Party groups adamantly oppose government spending, even on what many would regard as necessary and desirable services, is axiomatic. That the Franklin County Patriots would have welcomed a federal government shut down is a given. That they hold their monthly meeting in the Rocky Mount Public Library - a taxpayer operated facility - at no cost to the group, would be deliciously ironic except for the fact that this is one of the groups driving an ill tempered political debate in which any compromise as regarded as equivalent to treason.

Their hero, former President Ronald Reagan, must be spinning in his grave!

Mark Twain may have described the Franklin County Patriots (and members of the United States Congress) perfectly with these words:

"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it."

Enough said!

Government Shut Down

The United States Government's current fiscal year began on October 1st, 2010.

Last year, as so frequently happens, the Congress failed to pass the necessary appropriations bills before the beginning of the year and, since that time, the government has been operating on a serious of short term Continuing Resolutions. Unless an agreement is reached by midnight today, the government will only have the authority to spend money on non-appropriated items such as entitlements (including Social Security and Medicare), interest on the national debt and other mandatory items.

Of particular note - and an insult to all of us who pay taxes - salaries due to the responsible parties (the President, Members of the House of Representatives and Senators) are a mandatory spending item not subject to Congressional appropriation.

The result will be a partial government shut down: contractors will no longer be paid and employees whose responsibilities do not involve the protection of life or property will be furloughed. Those employees who are considered to be essential, including members of the armed services, will be required to work although there is no assurance that they will actually be paid for their time and effort.

As of now, the difference between the parties is $5 billion which, compared to the projected 2011 deficit of more than $1.3 TRILLION, is trivial. Republicans in the House of Representatives are also insisting on some policy riders, unacceptable to Democrats who control the Senate, relating to regulation of greenhouse gases by the Environmental Administration and abortion.

It is hard to understand why such a small difference regarding spending cuts can not be resolved. Matters of policy, specially those where opposing views are strongly held, should be debated and passed, or not, on their own merits rather than being used to hold critical spending bills hostage. That these issues are a matter of principle for some is one thing but they may wish to consider the old adage that the ends do not justify the means.

In a parliamentary system, legislators are quickly held responsible. Earlier this week, the Portuguese parliament failed to adopt spending cuts proposed by the government. As a result, the Prime Minister announced his resignation and the government fell.

Since our Constitution provides for both the separation of the Executive and Legislative branches and for fixed terms of office, irresponsibility is largely painless - at least in the short term - and the resignation of the government is not an option.

A possible solution is that the President, together with his senior staffers and the Cabinet, as well as all members of the House and Senate should be locked in an empty, unheated, warehouse with no food, water, furniture, or access to a bathroom until they have agreed on a bill to fund the government through the remainder of the fiscal year.

It would have been better had they been locked up on Monday but, since the damage resulting from a weekend shutdown is serious, but not critical, today would be better than not at all.

Nuclear Power

Murphy's Law says that whatever can go wrong, will go wrong, at the worst possible time. A corollary to Murphy's Law states that Murphy was an optimist.

A more subtle description of the ongoing disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is suggested by this quote attributed to engineer James Arnhein in the book Forensic Engineering written by Professor Kenneth Carper:

"Engineering: the art and science of molding materials we do not fully understand; into shapes we cannot precisely analyze; to resist forces we cannot accurately predict; all in such a way that the society at large is given no reason to suspect the extent of our ignorance."

Knowing this, design engineers generally add additional safety margins (i.e. fudge factors) as they attempt to compensate for the limits of their knowledge and of the unknown - perhaps even unknowable - events that may take place. Whether the problem is operator error, outside intervention, a catastrophic natural disaster, or some combination of all of these, human imagination is frequently unable to conceive of the forces, stresses and malfunctions that may actually take place.

On the other hand, a design that attempts to guard against every possible event, or combination of events, whether known or unknown and no matter how unlikely, will not only be uneconomic but, according to Murphy, will still malfunction. Since that is so, designers must rely on the much maligned cost-benefit analysis which, for all its appearance of objectivity, is essentially a political - sometimes a legal - rather than a technical decision.

Without minimizing the potential danger posed by nuclear reactors, the consequences so far (none dead and cost of $24 - $30 billion to replace the destroyed reactors) are almost trivial compared to the damage and loss of life (more than ten thousand dead and some $235 billion in property damage) caused by the earthquake and tsunami.

In spite of all of the shouting and fuss about this latest disaster, there is one simple reality: life can not be a totally risk free adventure. It would be useful if the public were to get used to that idea - sooner rather than later.

Nothing New Under The Sun

The President and Congress are engaged in in a grotesque game of economic brinkmanship.

First there is the continued funding of the government when the latest temporary spending authorization expires at the end of next week; second is an increase in the legally permitted debt ceiling that will be needed by the end of May - at the latest. If the latter does not happen, the USA - just like some third world hellhole - will be forced to default on its sovereign debt or simply to stop paying its bills.

Our situation brings to mind a thought from German sociologist and political economist Max Weber:

"Ultimately there are only two kinds of deadly sins in the field of politics: lack of objectivity and—often but not always identical with it—irresponsibility.

Vanity, the need personally to stand in the foreground as clearly as possible, strongly tempts the politician to commit one or both of these sins."

Given that Weber died of the Spanish flu in 1920, it is clear that our situation proves, once again, that there is nothing new under the sun.